BTC BOTTOM RADAR PRO

AI ensemble · on-chain · derivatives · ETF · dynamic weights · backtest

BINANCE

F&G

FUTURES

ONCHAIN

DERIBIT

FRED

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24h High
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24h Low
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ATH
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From ATH
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Composite Bottom Score · Dynamic Weights

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Direction Forecast 4–8 WEEKS

3-class softmax model learning from past cycles — features: drawdown, weekly RSI, 2Y MA ratio, volatility, 8w momentum.

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FLAT

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DOWN

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AI Ensemble — Bottom Probability

4 models retrained on weekly data every refresh: logistic regression, XGBoost-style gradient boosting, LightGBM-style histogram boosting, mini LSTM (all pure JS, in-browser). Label: lowest close in ±20w window + ≥40% drawdown (±6w zone).

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ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS

CoinMetrics

MVRV Ratio — History (2019→today)

MVRV < 1: market below average cost basis (historic bottom zone). NUPL = (MVRV−1)/MVRV; SOPR proxy = daily MVRV change ratio.

DERIVATIVES & LIQUIDITY

Deribit · Binance Futures · Farside · DeFiLlama

Options Gamma Exposure (GEX)

Deribit BTC options (all expiries): GEX ≈ Σ(call OI × Γ) − Σ(put OI × Γ), scaled by spot² × 1%; Γ derived analytically (Black-Scholes) from mark IV. Positive GEX = dealers dampen volatility; negative = amplify.

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Estimated Liquidation Map

MODEL: real liquidation clusters exist only in paid sources like CoinGlass. This map is estimated from open interest, an assumed leverage distribution and 30-day entry-price density — not real cluster data.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows

Farside Investors daily table (12 funds incl. IBIT, FBTC, GBTC), $M. Positive = inflow (demand), negative = outflow.

Stablecoin Liquidity

Total supply of all stablecoins (DeFiLlama). Growing supply = dry powder ready to enter crypto; shrinking = liquidity exit.

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Whale Radar — Exchange Flows

CoinMetrics exchange in/outflows ($). Large inflows (whale deposits) precede sell pressure; large outflows to cold storage = accumulation. Spike badge: daily inflow z-score vs 90d mean > 2.

Paid Data Keys (optional)

Paste your own API keys for CoinGlass (real liquidations), CryptoQuant (exchange netflow) and Glassnode (on-chain) — keys are stored only in your browser, never sent anywhere. Panels keep working with free sources without keys.

CoinGlass —

CryptoQuant —

Glassnode —

EXPLAINABLE AI

walk-forward · SHAP

Feature Importance (permutation, OOS)

How much does AUC drop when each feature is shuffled in the test block of the final walk-forward fold? Mean of 3 reps — true out-of-sample contribution.

SHAP — Anatomy of the Current Prediction

Exact Shapley values (8 features → 256 coalitions), background = training mean. Bar: that feature's contribution to today's bottom probability (points).

PRICE & SIGNAL CHARTS

Backtest — Composite Score History (2017→today)

Green triangles: model-labeled macro bottom centers. Dashed line: 70 threshold. Stats over 8- and 26-week forward returns.

BTC/USDT — Weekly (Log)

Green dots: weeks with price below the 200-week MA. Coverage: Binance (2017-08+) — 200W MA first computable 2021-06. Hover to inspect.

Price 200-Week MA 2-Year MA Price < 200W MA

Weekly RSI (14)

25–35 band at macro bottoms; 70+ at tops.

Fear & Greed — Last 90 Days

Bottoms form in extreme fear (<20), tops in extreme greed (>80).

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Daily / weekly / monthly RSI, trend (above/below MA) and momentum alignment.

Indicator Correlation → Dynamic Weight

Pearson correlation between score series. Clusters with |ρ| > 0.70 get a penalty — no double-counting the same signal.

Macro Wind FRED

Liquidity/rates/dollar wind for risk assets. Source: FRED (M2SL, DGS10, DTWEXBGS) via proxy.

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Alarm System

Sound + notification + visual alert when the score crosses the threshold or extreme fear hits. Settings stored in your browser.

Active Score ≥ K&G ≤ 20

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Deep Analysis

Unified read of indicators + model + on-chain + derivatives + macro — updates automatically as data arrives.

Methodology & Data Coverage

Component	Weight	What it measures	Note